The 2026 World Cup is up and running across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the first round of group games has already turned a few heads. With 48 teams in the mix and an extra knockout round to survive, this is the most unpredictable World Cup we’ve ever had. So who actually has the squad, the form and the draw to go all the way?
The Favourites After the Opening Games
France
Even though Spain and France went into the tournament as joint favourites, France made the better start. A 3-1 win over Senegal in their opener saw Kylian Mbappe bag a brace to become his country’s all-time top scorer, with Bradley Barcola also on target.
They looked nervy at times but came through, and they remain at the head of the market after Tuesday’s clash with Iraq. Two finals’ worth of know-how, plus their pace and depth, makes them a hard side to bet against.
Spain
Spain are a slightly different story. Reigning European champions and packed with young talent like Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Nico Williams, they were expected to cruise. Instead, World Cup debutants Cape Verde held them to a goalless draw in Atlanta, with 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha pulling off seven saves to frustrate a Spain side that had 27 shots.
It’s knocked a bit of shine off their price. They’ve since answered those doubts emphatically, thrashing Saudi Arabia 4-0 with Lamine Yamal scoring on his first World Cup start. Uruguay remain in the final group game, but Spain look firmly back on track.
England
England gave their fans plenty to shout about with a 4-2 win over Croatia, with Harry Kane grabbing two and Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford also on the scoresheet. Thomas Tuchel’s side defended nervously at times, but the attacking firepower is clearly there.
A Few Others
Portugal, Brazil, Germany and Argentina round out the leading group. Brazil were held 1-1 by Morocco in their opener, but Argentina look ominous. Lionel Messi marked his record sixth World Cup with a hat-trick in a 3-0 win over Algeria. He has since broken Miroslav Klose’s record outright, scoring twice more against Austria to take his tally to 18 World Cup goals, making him the competition’s all-time leading scorer.
How to Read the World Cup Outright Odds
If you want a quick read on how each team is rated, the outright odds tell you more than most punditry. France and Spain sit at the top, England are next, then a chasing pack of Portugal, Brazil and Argentina.
Those prices shift after every round, so a team that wins well can shorten overnight while a side that draws can drift. If you want to see how the numbers move in real time, platforms like Sporting Life pull together odds from across the major bookmakers, which saves clicking between sites when you’re trying to read the market.
Value is the key word over a month-long tournament. A short price on a favourite doesn’t always offer much room, while a bigger price on a side with a kind route can be worth a look. It’s worth remembering that many bookmakers run each-way markets too, paying out if your team reaches the final or semi-finals, so check the settlement rules before you commit.
When you weigh up a contender, look past the badge and think about the path. Who do they meet in the round of 32, and where does the bracket take them after that? A favourable draw can be worth as much as an extra star player.
The Dark Horses Worth Watching
Every World Cup throws up a side that goes further than anyone expected, and a few teams at bigger prices have realistic routes deep into the tournament:
- Norway, who beat Iraq 4-1 with Erling Haaland scoring twice on his long-awaited World Cup debut. They followed that up by beating Senegal 3-2 in matchday two, and sit on six points alongside France heading into a winner-takes-the-group showdown in Boston on 26 June.
- USA, who opened with a 4-1 win over Paraguay at SoFi Stadium and have home advantage all the way to the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The hosts followed that up with a 2-0 win over Australia to wrap up top spot in Group D, becoming only the second team to clinch their group after Mexico.
- Morocco, who held Brazil to a 1-1 draw and have surged up the market on the back of it. They have since strengthened their position by beating Scotland 1-0, moving top of Group C ahead of their final match against Haiti.The 2022 semi-finalists still look the most likely African side to make a run.
- Japan, who twice came from behind to draw 2-2 with the Netherlands in Dallas before dismantling Tunisia 4-0 in matchday two. They sit level with the Dutch on four points at the top of Group F and have the pressing structure and attacking depth to trouble anyone in the knockout rounds. The 2022 quarter where they beat Germany and Spain feels less like a one-off with every performance.
- Colombia, who opened with a confident 3-1 win over World Cup debutants Uzbekistan, with Luis Diaz pulling the strings throughout. They were 2024 Copa America finalists and have one of the deepest squads outside the traditional elite. A tough Group K path through Portugal still lies ahead, but a side with this much attacking quality won’t be short of believers.
None of these will be lifting the trophy on most people’s predictions, but all three have the look of a side that could reach a quarter-final or beyond. In a tournament this size, that’s exactly where the surprises tend to come from.
Where the Smart Money Is Heading
France look the most complete of the favourites so far, with England’s attack and Spain’s young talent keeping both firmly in the conversation despite a few early jitters. The expanded format means there’s more room than ever for an outsider to make a run, so don’t write off Norway or the hosts just yet. Keep an eye on how the odds move after each round, because over the next few weeks the market will tell you plenty about who’s really in form.